Qualitative Analysis and Forecasting

Qualitative Analysis and Forecasting: is performed by human opinions rather than event-based data. A.k.a Judgmental Forecasting, vs. statistical forecasting.

Needs for Qualitative Analysis and Forecasting:

– No data is available. Difficult data collection. Statistical knowledge required.
– Long horizons of forecasting (forecasting for the next 2-3 years, wihle only 1 year of data is available).
Accuracy (Sometimes).
– New event happened affecting the forecasted variable.
– Availability of Non-quantified expert opinions.
– Brings intengible factors.

Cons:
– Long process.
– Expensive.
– Not precise.
– High risk of biased forecast.

Methods for Qualitative Forecasting:
Jury of Executive Opinions: High-level executives. Group thinking and Personality Dominance.
Surveys: require more data and is more expensive (Time and money).

– Focus groups – a group of individuals selected and assembled by researchers to discuss and comment on, from personal experience, a topic, issue or product
– User groups – similar to focus groups but consisting of those who have experience in the use of a product, system, service, etc.
– Panel surveys – repeated measurements from the same sample of people over a period of time

Delphi: Iterations of individuals’ judgments where each person sees the others’ opinions, hopefully to get opinions more similar after each iteration. Reduces “group-think”.
Nominal Group Technique: Delphi face to face.
Devil’s Advocate: A subgroup questioning the group’s conclusion.
– Dialectical inquiry: A subgroup providing alternatives to the group’s conclusion.
– Sales Force Composite: Asking salespersons to project their individual sales. Sales-reps know the customers best. But results are: Optimistic.

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